Visitors to casinos outside Las Vegas dropped sharply in January as brutal winter storms kept gamblers at home. Yet the money those who did show up spent actually rose, creating a mixed picture for the industry.
J.P. Morgan gaming analyst Daniel Politzer released a note on February 4 that caught Wall Street’s attention. His team tracked foot traffic at regional casinos across the country and found a clear drop.
Visitor counts were down 5.4 percent year-over-year in January. The worst-hit areas included the Midwest and Northeast, where heavy snow and ice made travel risky or impossible for days at a time.
“Multiple weekends got wiped out,” Politzer wrote. He pointed to closed highways, canceled flights, and local school closures that kept people from making their usual casino trips.
Winners Spent More When They Showed Up
The surprise came on the revenue side. Even with fewer people walking through the doors, the casinos still expect to report higher winnings.
Politzer projects gross gaming revenue, the money casinos keep after paying out prizes, will climb about 2 percent compared to January last year.
Players who braved the weather tended to stay longer and play higher-limit games. Slot machines and table games both saw bigger bets on average. Bad weather outside often means more time and money spent inside for those who make the trip.
Weather vs Growing Competition
Not every analyst sees the same future. Jefferies analyst David Katz issued his own report the same week and painted a tougher picture.
Katz believes regional gaming revenue could fall between 3 percent and 5 percent in the first quarter because of the storms. He worries the bad January numbers will force Wall Street to lower its forecasts for the whole quarter.
Beyond weather, Katz keeps warning about new competition. Online casino apps are now legal in more states every year. That lets people gamble from their couch instead of driving hours to a casino.
Which Casino Companies Look Strongest Right Now
Even with the short-term pain, some operators stand out as better picks.
Katz continues to rate Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, and Red Rock Resorts (parent of Station Casinos) as his top choices. He likes their strong local market positions and smart management teams.
| Company | Key Strength Analysts Highlight | Recent Stock Move |
|---|---|---|
| Boyd Gaming | Dominant in Las Vegas locals market | Up 8% YTD |
| Churchill Downs | Growing online betting plus racetrack casinos | Up 12% YTD |
| Red Rock Resorts | New projects opening in Las Vegas area | Up 6% YTD |
These three companies control large shares in markets where new competition is still limited.
What This Means for Everyday Gamblers
Fewer crowded casinos in January probably felt nice for players who went. Shorter lines at slots and more open seats at blackjack tables became common on storm weekends.
Casinos responded by offering bigger promotions through February to bring people back. Free play offers and hotel discounts hit inboxes across the Midwest and East Coast.
The bigger question is whether online gambling keeps eating into trips. Every state that launches legal online casinos sees some drop in visits to brick-and-mortar locations.
January showed Mother Nature can still deliver the hardest punch in a single month. A string of major snowstorms across key gaming states created the sharpest one-month visitor decline in years.
The regional casino story this winter mixes weather pain with signs of player loyalty. People stayed home when roads turned dangerous, but those who showed up played harder than ever. Wall Street now watches spring patterns closely to see if the lost visits return or if new online options keep more players away for good.
