Casino operators aren’t just reporting stronger numbers — they’re finally taking a long, hard look in the mirror. That’s the real takeaway from second-quarter earnings so far, according to Jefferies analyst David Katz, who says this season is marked by a rare dose of corporate humility.
While profits rolled in across the sector, a subtle shift was underway. Leaders aren’t just patting themselves on the back. They’re acknowledging where they’ve fallen short and, perhaps more importantly, what they plan to do about it.
Sands and Churchill Take the Lead in Self-Critique
David Katz singled out Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Churchill Downs Inc. as the two most self-aware operators this quarter. That’s not an insult — quite the opposite.
Sands, for instance, was open about underperformance in its Macanese portfolio. Instead of spinning a rosy narrative, management admitted they’ve got work to do.
And they weren’t vague either. Since April, they’ve been revamping customer reinvestment strategies across Macau. The Londoner, one of its flagship properties, has picked up pace, showing early signs that their tweaks might actually be working.
Churchill Downs, meanwhile, wasn’t just candid — it beat expectations outright.
• Revenue came in at $934.4 million vs. the expected $895 million
• Cash flow topped $450.9 million — well ahead of Wall Street’s $430.6 million forecast
Despite that beat, execs didn’t rest on their laurels. They addressed future growth areas, something Katz saw as a sign of serious long-term intent.
Some Players Stick to Their Guns
Boyd Gaming Corp. and Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI) didn’t offer the same soul-searching tone — but that might not be a bad thing.
According to Katz, those companies operate without real pressure to pivot. In other words, if it ain’t broke, they don’t need to fix it.
Their earnings calls were steady and largely uneventful. No dramatic plans. No sweeping changes. Just business as usual — and apparently, that’s working fine for now.
Still, that contrast set them apart from Sands and Churchill, who seem to be preparing for more competitive shifts down the line. “They bear no pressure to change course.”
Stock Ratings Stay Strong — But Targets Get Tweaked
Katz isn’t turning bearish on any of these names. Quite the opposite.
He’s keeping “Buy” ratings on all four stocks mentioned — Sands, Churchill, Boyd, and GLPI. But he’s also revising a few targets upward.
Here’s how the numbers moved:
| Company | Previous Target | New Target | Monday Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands | $58 | $61 | $52.49 |
| Churchill Downs | $127 | $131 | $111.25 |
The changes reflect confidence in the companies’ future strategies — especially those showing they’re willing to confront weak spots head-on.
Even with some Macanese margin erosion on the horizon, Katz says the payoff in gross gaming revenue will be worth it.
Regional Demand Holds Strong — Especially in Asia
It’s not all about internal reckonings. A big part of this quarter’s strength, Katz noted, came from solid — even surging — demand across key markets.
Macau and Singapore are leading the charge.
Sands is especially bullish on Singapore, where construction progress is moving fast. The company expects higher room rates once those projects wrap up.
In regional U.S. markets, the demand curve hasn’t bent either. From Louisiana to Ohio, footfall has remained resilient — helping to prop up revenue even when larger strategic shifts are underway.
Some markets are hotter than others, sure. But no one’s complaining.
Why Humility Might Actually Pay Off
At face value, earnings reports are about numbers. But this season, the subtext matters just as much.
Companies like Sands and Churchill are making an effort to move beyond templated earnings calls. They’re showing they’re listening — not just to analysts, but to their own operations.
That matters.
It’s one thing to post a win. It’s another to admit you could’ve played the hand better.
That mindset, according to Katz, could separate the good from the great in the next phase of market competition.
And in a business where odds are everything, betting on a bit of humility might not be such a long shot.
