January’s casino numbers tell a story of shifting habits. Fewer people are hitting the gaming floors, but those who do are spending more. That’s the takeaway from a new report by Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz, who examined U.S. casino visitation and spending trends for the start of 2025. His findings, published in a February 10 investor note, suggest a market still adjusting to post-pandemic realities.
Fewer Visitors, Bigger Wallets
Katz found that January’s casino visitation was flat compared to 2024 but down 13.6% from 2019 levels. That’s a significant drop, showing the long-term effects of changing consumer behavior. But there was a silver lining: revenue per visitor was slightly higher than in 2019.
For casino operators like Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, Caesars Entertainment, Monarch Casino Resorts, and Penn Entertainment, this trend is a mixed bag. Higher spending per visitor helps offset declining foot traffic, but overall revenue pressures remain.
And then there was the weather. Boyd casinos saw a 9.3% drop in traffic, with Katz pointing out that “bad weather negatively impacted performance during the month.” It’s another factor making it tough to draw clear conclusions about whether these trends will continue.
Regional Winners and Losers
Casino performance varied widely by region. Some areas showed resilience, while others struggled to bring gamblers through the doors.
- Ohio and Pennsylvania: Foot traffic declined by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
- Atlantic City: A 7% drop from early 2024 and down 11.5% from 2019.
- Illinois: Worse than Atlantic City, with an 8% dip from 2019 and a 12.9% slide from last year.
- Detroit: A rare bright spot, showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, though traffic is still 30.6% lower than in 2019.
Katz highlighted that markets remain “choppy,” with factors like competition, renovations, and consumer habits post-pandemic still shaking things up.
Costs Weigh on Operators
While casinos are squeezing more spending from visitors, rising costs are making it harder to turn a profit. Katz flagged three key expenses that could eat into earnings:
- Casino insurance – A growing cost burden for operators.
- Utilities – Energy costs continue to climb.
- Labor – Higher wages and staffing challenges are a concern.
Even with improving spending patterns, these cost pressures could cap profits, particularly for companies like Caesars and Boyd, which have heavy exposure to regional markets.
New Openings Shake Up the Market
Not all regions saw declines. Kentucky, which has seen a wave of new casino openings, actually posted a 2.3% increase in patronage in January. But because of all the new properties, it’s hard to compare this to 2019 trends.
Colorado’s Black Hawk market, home to Monarch Casino’s expanded resort, wasn’t as fortunate. It saw a 2.4% dip despite what Katz described as strong performance from the new resort.
And then there’s Churchill Downs. The company is betting big on The Rose Gaming Resort in Virginia, but early results are underwhelming. Katz noted that the casino appears to be off to a slow start, though it’s too early to make a final call.
Competition Adds Pressure
Penn Entertainment has been feeling the squeeze in states like Illinois and Ohio, where high competition levels are impacting performance. Katz pointed out that these regions remain difficult markets, particularly for Penn’s properties.
Caesars and Boyd, both heavily reliant on regional casinos, face a similar challenge. Their success depends on stabilizing visitation trends, something that remains unpredictable in 2025.
Churchill Downs, however, could see growth thanks to its newer properties in Kentucky and Virginia. Katz’s note suggested that the company might be in a better position than some of its rivals, assuming its newer casinos gain traction.
What’s Next?
Katz sees ongoing volatility in casino traffic, with post-COVID adjustments still playing out. He expects trends to “continue to stabilize and potentially improve” as year-over-year comparisons become easier. But with costs rising and competition fierce, casino operators still have plenty to worry about.
One thing is clear: fewer people may be visiting casinos, but those who do are spending enough to keep the industry afloat—for now.
