Engagement in Super Bowl betting remained high this year, but according to Wall Street analyst Chad Beynon from Macquarie Equity Research, the final outcome wasn’t entirely in favor of sportsbooks. While prop bets and same-game parlays provided some upside, the overall hold rate hovered between 0% and 5%—a figure considered below average for the industry.
Same-Game Parlays and Prop Bets Help Balance the Losses
The sportsbooks had a tough time with the game results, but not everything went against them. Same-game parlays and prop bets gave operators a slight cushion. Bettors placed heavy wagers on specific game outcomes, and these types of bets typically come with higher margins for sportsbooks.
Beynon noted that while the game itself didn’t play out in sportsbooks’ favor—particularly with Philadelphia covering and the over hitting—the reliance on diversified betting options helped offset some losses.
- Kansas City backers took a hit: About 64% of bettors put their money on the Chiefs, which didn’t end well for them.
- Philadelphia bettors fared better: Roughly 58% had money on the Eagles at +1.5, which worked out in their favor.
- Key player props didn’t pay out: Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce failing to score a touchdown was a win for sportsbooks, as these were among the most popular player prop bets.
Live Betting and Halftime Wagers Tilted Towards Sportsbooks
One area where sportsbooks saw an advantage was in live betting and halftime wagers. Many public bettors placed money on the Chiefs at halftime, expecting a second-half surge. With the line at about +15 points, that ended up being a losing bet for many, which worked in the sportsbooks’ favor.
Beynon emphasized that live betting continues to be a significant revenue stream for operators. The fast-paced nature of in-game wagers allows sportsbooks to adjust odds dynamically, capturing more value as games unfold.
Super Bowl Futures Wagers Brought a Silver Lining
Despite the less-than-ideal Super Bowl hold rate, sportsbooks did benefit from futures bets. Philadelphia’s victory helped mitigate risks associated with Kansas City winning the title, as operators had more exposure to Chiefs-related futures liabilities.
“Philadelphia winning was positive for sportsbooks regarding futures bets,” Beynon said. “We estimate sportsbooks had a liability in a Kansas City win scenario.”
This aligns with last year’s results, where DraftKings managed to stay within its expected hold rate despite a less-than-favorable game outcome. A diverse betting menu, including parlays and futures, helped cushion the impact of the primary game results.
The Bigger Picture for the Sports Betting Industry
Even though sportsbooks didn’t have their best Super Bowl, the bigger picture remains positive. The expansion of legal sports betting across the U.S. has driven record engagement, and the ability to offer various betting options beyond just traditional spreads and totals is proving to be a crucial revenue driver.
While some bettors walked away with significant winnings, the mix of wagers—from same-game parlays to halftime bets—helped sportsbooks manage risk. The industry continues to evolve, with operators finding ways to stay competitive even when the game results lean in favor of the public.
