Wynn Resorts got a confidence boost from J.P. Morgan after delivering stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The firm raised its December 2025 price target for the casino operator’s stock to $117, up from previous estimates, reflecting solid gains in both Las Vegas and Macau. Wynn’s shares closed at $90.76 on Friday, but the latest analysis suggests there’s room for growth.
Las Vegas Outperforms Expectations
Wynn’s Las Vegas operations stood out in the fourth quarter, beating J.P. Morgan’s EBITDAR expectations by 20%. Analyst Joseph Greff highlighted robust demand, with table drop nearly flat and slot handle rising 13%. The non-gaming sector also held up well, even against the backdrop of last year’s inaugural Formula 1 race, which set a high benchmark.
- F1-related EBITDA came in $20 million lower than last year, mainly due to a decline in revenue per room.
- However, both years’ F1 weekends still outperformed pre-race periods by 50%, showcasing Wynn’s resilience.
- January continued the momentum, with increases in table drop, slot handle, room rates, and food & beverage sales.
Wynn is predicting strong volume metrics for Q1, though it faces a $25 million EBITDAR headwind from last year’s Super Bowl, which had a significant impact on revenue.
Macau: Solid Performance Amid Changing Visitation Patterns
Wynn’s Macau properties delivered a 7% EBITDAR beat over J.P. Morgan’s expectations. The January period saw:
- Strong mass table drop and direct VIP turnover
- Full occupancy levels throughout the Chinese New Year period
- Slot handle up year-over-year despite choppy hold rates
One notable trend in Macau is the longer visitation periods seen during Chinese New Year, which helped spread out demand instead of concentrating it on just a few peak days. While sentiment toward Macau has fluctuated, Wynn continues to hold a strong position in the market.
Boston Sees Steady Growth
At Wynn’s Boston property, demand stayed healthy through January, driven by:
- Growth in slot handle
- Stable non-gaming revenue, despite tougher year-over-year comparisons
The Massachusetts location remains an important piece of Wynn’s portfolio, offering steady returns.
J.P. Morgan Raises 2025 EBITDAR Forecast
J.P. Morgan made a slight upward revision to its 2025 EBITDAR forecast, now expecting $2.26 billion, up from $2.25 billion.
- The Las Vegas EBITDAR forecast increased to $875 million (previously $846 million).
- That offset a minor downward revision in Macau projections.
For 2026, J.P. Morgan expects Wynn’s total property-level EBITDAR to grow by 2% year-over-year, including a 3% gain in Las Vegas.
Analyst Maintains Overweight Rating
J.P. Morgan remains bullish on Wynn Resorts, maintaining an overweight rating. Greff pointed out that:
- Las Vegas expectations remain moderate, yet valuation still looks attractive.
- Macau sentiment has cooled recently, but fundamentals remain solid.
- Wynn Al Marjan, an upcoming project in the UAE, isn’t priced into the stock yet, leaving room for upside.
The analyst believes Wynn’s current valuation is undemanding, with the potential for further gains as new projects come into play.
